An Unusual Allıance: On Unıqueness of Turkısh-Qatarı Relatıons

The illegal blockade started in 2017 gave old school geo-political understanding a victory. Many lectured Qatar to adopt its position as small state and act like one; bandwagon and happily accept being bullied; in order to “survive” in an anarchic environment.[af] Qatar: Big lessons from a small country [/af] Mahbubani’s claim was that Qatar’s middle-power-like actions and its denial its own position as small state led to its own demise; since small states can’t act like middle powers due to their lack of material capabilities to protect themselves from aggression. This conviction didn’t age well obviously. First of all, Qatar never forget its weakness in military sense. Qatar is enjoying good military relations with a superpower, United States, while it is also keeping its positive relations with other Western states, such as France and Germany.[af] Lekhwiya, French National Gendarmerie sign agreement [/af] Doing this, Qatar is adopting a global protection; while cautiously sticking its sovereign foreign policy. Second, Qatar also formed strong non-Arab regional alliances. Unlike the lectures Qatar has received during the crisis; going outside of Gulf ensured Qatar’s survival in this case. Military base of a middle power, Turkey, in the peninsula became a deterrent for aggressors. Besides, unlike superficial advises of Mahbubani; it was wiser for Qatar to diversify its foreign policy options as UAE-Saudi block already acted as adversaries in 1996; while GCC was still intact.[af] New details revealed on 1996 coup attempt against Qatar [/af] Mahbubani’s unwilling attitude to understand Gulf’s unique conditions led him to spill superficial advises. In fact, there was a trust problem between Qatar and rest of GCC and realizing that, Qatar has diversified its foreign policy options. For some time, it was a challenging effort for Qatar to diversify its foreign policy options within the region. Iraq was an adversary of the Gulf, Iran’s expansionist agenda as well as sectarian differences were constituting a limit to good relations between two states, Baathist Syria was an ideological adversary even though an open conflict was yet far from the scope, Egypt was a one of the supporters 1996 coup d’etat attempt while Jordan and Lebanon were also under Qatar’s adversaries’ influence. These hardships make Turkey is a perfect option for Qatar. Especially with Erdogan came to power. Turkey is a Muslim country without sectarian differences, enjoying institutional relations with Western bloc and has a strong military to deter its regional adversaries as well. This natural tendency has strengthened with the start of Arab Spring and with the reign of Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani.

Qatar isn’t acting like a small state that is correct; yet Mahbubani was right about one thing. Geo-politics will attempt to make a state pay; if that state isn’t accepting its position in the hierarchy. Yet, Qatar managed to survive this attempt with its skilled diplomacy and rationally selected allies. Qatar is benefiting Turkey from this aspect obviously. Turkish military presence in the peninsula and general Turkish diplomatic support is quite helpful to keep Qatar’s adversaries at bay and ensure its survival. Moreover, when Qatar’s soft power meets its limits, it can combine with Turkish hard power; which ensures Qatar’s and Turkey’s joint benefits can be achieved.

Turkey, on the other hand, adopted a more pro-active approach in its foreign policy during the last decade. This pro-active approach conflicted Turkey’s early position as a middle power. Moreover, it led to a problematic situation for Turkey too. Zero problems with neighbors policy of Davutoglu era has failed terribly when Arab Spring has come to an end in Syria. In addition to its former problems, Turkey has met with some new ones. Besides with the failure of the so-called Solution Process reflected to the transnational area. PKK has strengthened considerably during this process and turned into a bigger problem with its tentacles over Syria. To make it more complex, PKK’s Syrian branch draw considerable support from Turkey’s traditional allies and come to brick of legitimization in the international area. Moreover, Turkey has confronted with Russia, its historical and traditional adversary, on multiple fronts. Even though the view is looking like a complete mess; Turkey managed to cope, more or less, with Russia in three fronts, strike considerable blows against PKK and make sure Assad can’t reach a total victory; while also challenging Iran’s expansionism over Iraq and Syria. In addition, Turkey is trying to cope with the French-Greek axis in Eastern Mediterranean, upon the problem caused by long waiting maritime border issues. While those problems are happening, Turkey managed to obtain a military base in the Horn of Africa; far from the regional security complexes it engages.

View is showing us an intriguing point. Turkey’s independent presence on multiple fronts is completely opposing to the previous position that adopted by Turkey. In other words, Turkey isn’t acting like a middle power; yet its material capabilities and currently exhausted diplomatic relations are coming short to become a big power too. Yet, Turkey is succeeding while not acting as a middle power; since it can protect itself from a big power like Russia by engaging an indirect, hybrid war at multiple fronts against it. Still, it is not a big power and it needs allies. Despite certain difficulties, Turkey is managing to keep its traditional allies and keep being an active member of international organizations also. Yet, it is not sufficient; since Turkey’s traditional allies have already penetrated regional security complexes that Turkey is engaged and have their own agenda, which is conflicting with Turkey’s. Thus, Turkey’s need for a regional ally is clear. For both boosting its legitimacy and combine its power as well. In this aspect, Qatar is presenting a perfect choice for Turkey. Qatar’s immense soft power, its financial capabilities and extensive tribal connections around the Gulf are perfect tools to cope with the anti-Turkish ideological stance in the Arab World. Besides, Qatar’s diplomatic power and presence within international organizations, that Turkey is not participating in, are proved to be helpful to Turkish security operations.[af] Qatar breaks ranks with Arab League to give full support to Turkey [/af] Moreover, Turkey’s and Qatar’s position in Palestine Issue is helping to improve and preserve their image in Muslim societies. Having an Arab partner, besides following a non-sectarian agenda, in this issue is making it harder to exclude and demonize Turkey; unlike Iran, which is adopting a similar but more radical stance in Palestine Issue, yet is being excluded and demonized throughout Arab World; except within small sectarian societies.

Turkey’s need for Qatar is quite similar to Qatar’s need for Turkey. Turkish military capabilities are in need to be combined with a considerable and foreign soft power. Even though Turkey has focused on the concept of power during the last decade; due to various reasons; Turkish soft power capabilities aren’t developed according to plan. It came short many times when it encounters with anti-Turkish propaganda. Most significantly PKK rhetoric and UAE-Saudi perception management attempts.

In a nutshell, Turkey is a middle power; which is not acting like a middle power and Qatar is a small state which is not acting like small state. In addition, they both are not claiming to be big powers and strictly avoiding revisionism too. So, they are not fitting their roles but also quite avoiding a drastic trample over geo-political lines and adopting revisionism. Yet, together they are overcoming the challenges that they are encountering. Mostly because their reluctance to adopt their hierarchical position. The alliance’s success in Somalia, Libya and Syria, within certain limits; besides surviving a brutal blockade without giving one compromise in the latter. Turkish-Qatari alliance is able to project its combined power to many fronts in MENA and Horn of Africa while competing with big powers and the same-scaled states; such as UAE and Saudi Arabia. This notion is making Turkish-Qatari alliance unusual in geo-political sense.

The negative effects of normalization within GCC to the alliance is questionable. As it is already discussed, it was the Gulf states and Egypt that make Qatar to look for allies outside of the Arab world at the first place. Moreover, albeit there are extensive tribal connections within Gulf, Qatar has already learned that other Gulf states are the primary threat to its survival; unless Qatar is going to compromise and obey the others. Turkey is also enjoying having a prestigious Arab ally with capabilities to enforce a strategy. Yet, the current status of relations is only the beginning.

Due to geographical position, not sharing any border, Turkey and Qatar can’t fulfil the potential of their alliance. To fulfill that potential; a shared border is necessary; this makes a third partner is also necessary. Making Turkey meet with the Gulf is a hard task. Even though conflicting in Syria, Iran’s position against Turkey and Qatar is not as negative as to Saudi Arabia, Iran’s ideological nemesis. Yet, Iran is primary responsible for cutting Turkey from the Gulf right now; especially with its expanding influence over Iraq. The possibility of an Iran-free Iraq has much to offer to the region. A potential Istanbul-Basra or Iskenderun-Basra railway can connect Turkey to Gulf, and Qatar, which will enable a stronger security alliance, development of economic cooperation and most importantly a much-needed third partner: Iraq. With geographical connection and the third partner; it will be much easier and much meaningful for the Turkish-Qatari alliance to institutionalize. A possible international organization constituted by Turkey, Qatar and Iraq will be enough to shape Gulf, Levant and Eastern Mediterranean at the same time; while it also creates new energy routes to Europe and other commercial routes to Gulf markets. Moreover, it can stabilize Iraq with positive economic outcomes and strong security cooperation; while creating a chance to keep China at the bay. Due to the current Iranian influence over Iraq, it looks like a long shot at the time, but it should be also remembered that ongoing popular disturbances in Iraq are mostly have anti-Iranian sentiment and change is always on the table.