Lübnan’da yaklaşık son bir yıldır hükümetler ve halk arasında yaşanan sorunların başlıca kaynağı ülkedeki siyasi sistem olarak gösteriliyor. Tarihsel bir zincirlemenin son halkası olan mevcut sistem, din ve mezhep temelli ayrışmayı temel alıyor. Hükümetler değişse dahi Lübnan’daki bakanlıkların verileceği siyasi partiler ve mezhepler genellikle aynı kalıyor. Ancak buna rağmen hükümeti belirlemek aylarca sürebiliyor. Çünkü kabineyi kurmak için hükümette yer almayan bazı siyasi kişi ve kurumları da buna ikna etmek gerekebiliyor. Lübnan’da kısacası zoraki bir konsensusa/koalisyona dayalı bir hükümet sistemi yatıyor. İttifaklar ise bu koalisyon içerisinde iktidar veya muhalefet olarak yer değiştiriyor. Yasama ve yürütmenin din ve mezhebe dayalı olarak seçildiği Lübnan’da sistemin getirdiği zorluklara artık çare bulunamaması, insanların sokağa dökerek yoğun katılımlı protestolarla değişim taleplerinin yerine getirilmesine zorluyor. Lübnan’daki bu siyasi sistemin kökenleri Osmanlı Devleti’ne kadar uzanıyor. Çoğu yorum bu durumu, siyasi sistem okumalarını, iç savaşın bitişi olan 1989 yılından başlatsa da sorun daha derinlerde.
Yavuz Sultan Selim’in Mercidabık Savaşı’nı kazanmasının ardından ülkenin merkezindeki Lübnan Dağları’nda yeni bir sayfa açıldı. İstanbul yönetimi bölgeye emir olarak Ma’an aşiretinden Dürzi Fahreddin bin Osman’ı atadı. Ancak bu seçim tepki aldı. Osman’ın yönetimine tepki gösterenler arasında kendi mezhebinden olanların yanında diğer din ve mezheplerden aileler de vardı. Bu siyasi çatışmalar neticesinde kısa bir süre sonra emirliğe Mansur el-Asaf geldi. Türkmen ve Sünni olan Emir Mansur, altmış yıllık yönetiminde Maruni ve Şiilere yönetimde yer vererek, Lübnan bölgesinde istikrarlı bir dönemin yaşanmasını sağladı. Maruni olan Hubeyş ailesi de bunun karşılığında tüm yeteneklerini Mansur’un emirliği için kullandı.[af] Winslow, C. Lebanon – War and Politics in a Fragmented Society. Londra: Routledge, 2005, s. 15 [/af] Bu gelişmelerle Osmanlı Lübnan’ında yönetimle ilgili ilk sorun emirliğin mezhebi ve dini üzere çıkmış oldu. Yönetimin el değiştirmesi ile kısa süreli olsa da çözülmüş oluyordu. Ancak Ma’an ailesi daha sonra yönetimi geri alacak ancak dönemleri boyunca huzursuzluklar bitmeyecekti. Emirliği işgal eden Ma’an ailesinin sonunu ise iktidarda kalmak için mücadele ettiği İstanbul’dan çok diğer Dürzi aşiretlerle mücadelesi getirdi.
Lübnan uzun süre yerel yönetim üzere aileler ve mezhepler arası rekabetin beşiği olarak görece istikrarlı şekilde Osmanlı ile yaşamını sürdürdü. Mısır Valisi Mehmet Ali ve oğlu İbrahim’in isyanlarının karşısında Lübnan Marunileri ve Dürzileri İstanbul yönetimi ile yan yana durdu. Bastırılan isyanın ardından Kahire’deki isyancı paşalar bölgedeki kontrolü yeniden İstanbul’a devretmek zorunda kaldı. Bu süreçte Mısır tarafından bölgeden sürülen Dürzi toprak ağalarının geri dönmesi Marunilerle aralarında çatışmaların çıkmasına neden oldu. Bu gelişme bölgede iz bırakacak mezhep ve din kavgalarının ilkiydi.[af] Makdisi, U. The Culture of Sectarianism – Community, History and Violence in Nineteenth-Century Ottoman Lebanon. Londra: University of California Press, 2000, s. 51 [/af] İki grup arasında bölgenin Mısır idaresinde olduğu dönemde İbrahim Paşa’nın uyguladığı politikalar nedeniyle oldukça şiddetli bir mücadele yaşanmıştı. Bu durum Osmanlı’nın bölgenin idaresini tam olarak geri aldığı 1840 tarihine kadar sürdü. Dürzi ailelerin emirlik makamını ellerinde tutmasına karşın Maruni Kilisesi’nin artan siyasi ve ekonomik etkileri de, bu iki topluluğun birbirleriyle çatışmalarına yol açıyordu. Bu çatışmalar dini göründüğü kadar güç ve ekonomik çıkar çatışmalarına da dayanıyordu.
Tanzimat Fermanı ve yabancı ülkelerin, bilhassa Fransa ve İngiltere’nin yoğun olarak Lübnan üzerinden İstanbul’a kurduğu baskı artık bölgede yeni bir yönetim şekline geçilmesini zorunlu kıldı. 1842 yılında Osmanlı, Beyrut-Şam Yolu’nu sınır belirleyerek, “İki Kaymakamlı Düzeni” başlattığını duyurdu. Bu kapsamda yolun kuzeyi Marunilere ve güneyi de Dürzilere verildi. Gelgelelim buradaki bir sorun ise kuzeyde yaşayan Dürziler olduğu gibi güneyde yaşayan Marunilerin olmasıydı.[af] Malaspina, A. Lebanon. New York: Infobase Publishing, 2009, s. 37 [/af] Bu haritalandırma da iki topluluğun aslında yıllardır sürdürdüğü iç içer yaşam alanlarını birbirlerinden kesin olarak ayırmıyordu. Osmanlı yine de bu ‘düzende’ ısrar etti. Her iki kaymakamlık da bünyesinde on iki kişilik bir meclis barındırıyordu. Bu kişiler de farklı mezhep ve dinlere ait kişiler arasından seçiliyordu. Her makam, kendi mezhep/diniyle ilgili sorunlarla ilgilenirken katipler ise bağlı olunan yönetimin inancından oluyordu.[af] Keleş, E., 2008, “Cebel-i Lübnan’da İki Kaymakamlı İdari Düzenin Uygulanması ve 1850 Tarihli Nizamnâme”. Tarih Araştırmaları Dergisi, Vol. 27, No. 43 s.140 [/af]
Règlement Organique
Lübnan’ın Akdeniz’e kıyısı ve tarıma elverişli arazileri ticareti bölgenin sahili ile iç kesimleri sıkı bir ilişkide tutuyordu. Sadece sahil kentleri değil iç bölgelerde yer alan köy ve kasabalar da deniz ticaretinden faydalanıyordu. 19. yüzyıla doğru canlı ticaret havzası ve Avrupalıların ilgileri ile Lübnan’da büyük bir ticari değer oluşmaya başladı. Bu ticari değer toprağı da kıymetlendiriyordu ve bu dönem toprak ağaları için de zenginlik dönemi idi. Beyrut’un kuzeyindeki verimli Kesrevan arazilerinde Maruni Hazin ailesi tipik bir toprak egemen aile olarak oldukça etkindi. Ancak vergiler ve siyasi etkilerle alınan ticari kararlar ailenin gücünü gittikçe azaltıyordu. Yönetimin aileden daha çok vergi alması ve ailenin ipek üretiminde daha yüksek pay istemesi çatışmaya yol açmaya başladı.
Yönetimin Hazin ailesine yönelik tutumu ailenin Beyrut’taki tefecilerle olan bağlantılarını ve Maruni Kilisesi’nda kaybettiği nüfuzuna mal oluyordu. Tüm bu kayıplar da ailenin Kesravan’daki çiftçilere yönelik baskılarını artırmasına neden oldu. Halihazırda zor şartlarda yaşayan bu çiftçilerin paraya ihtiyaç duydukları zaman tefecilere gitmeleri de bölgede çözülmesi zor bir kısır döngüye yol açtı.[af] Ayteki̇n, E. (2012). “Peasant Protest in the Late Ottoman Empire: Moral Economy, Revolt, and the Tanzimat Reforms.” International Review of Social History, Vol. 57, No.2, s. 205 [/af] Hem Kırım Savaşı’nın getirdiği ekonomik sıkıntılar hem de Hazin ailesinin, Hıristiyan olan Kaymakam’ı devirmek için girdiği güç mücadelesi, 1858 yılının sonlarına doğru çiftçiler arasında bir değişim dalgasını tetikledi. Toprak ağaları ile aynı dinden olan bu çiftçiler, kendi içlerinden bir temsilci aracılığı ile şikayet ve isteklerini arz etmek gibi bir hakları olmadığı için farklı bir yol izlediler: 1859 yılının başlarında Kesravan’daki Maruni köylüler, yaptıkları toplantıda katırcılık işiyle uğraşan Tanyus Şahin’i kendilerine önder seçtiler.[af] Chaker, Joane. (2016). “Mule Drivers in Nineteenth-Century Lebanon: From Local Social History Towards Global History”. Almanack, No. 14, s. 34 [/af]
Liderlerini seçen köylüler, bağımsızlıklarını ilan ederek, toprak ağalarından fazla vergi ve aşırı çalışma uygulamalarını bitirmelerini talep ettiler. Ancak Hazin ailesi bu duruma hiç de sıcak yaklaşmadı.[af] Aytekin E., a.g.m, s. 206 [/af] Aile bu zor durumda Beyrut’un güneyindeki sahil şehri olan Seyda Valisi Hurşid Paşa’dan yardım istedi. Her ne kadar Osmanlı yanında olsa da çiftçiler Hazin ailesini bölgeden sürmeyi başardılar.[af ] Leila Tarazi Fawaz. “An Occasion For War – Civil Conflict In Lebanon And Damascus In 1860”. Berkley: University of California Press, 1994, s. 45 [/af] Kesravan’daki bu hareketlilik diğer bölgeleri de etkilemeye başlamıştı. Lübnan Dağları’nda yer alan Şuf bölgesindeki Dürzi köylüler de toprak ağalarına karşı ayaklanıyorlardı. Sınıfsal ayaklanmayı bastırmak bir yana Dürzi toprak ağaları bu bölgede farklı mezheplerden çocuklar arasında yaşanan bir arazi anlaşmazlığı sebebiyle 1860 yılında Marunilerle bir savaşa başladılar. Dürzilerin kazandığı bu savaş, Osmanlı ve Avrupalı devletlerin de müdahalesiyle Dürzi ve Maruni toprak ağalarının statülerini korumalarını sağladı. Bununla birlikte Avrupa devletleri, Lübnan’a yönelik politikalarını daha müdahaleci bir seviyey taşıdı ve bölgede İstanbul yönetimine karşı mücadeleye başladılar.[af] Aytekin E., a.g.m, s. 208 [/af]
Köylülerin devrimi ile lider seçilen Tanyus Şahin’in Kesravan’daki yöneticilik rüzgarı 1861 yılının yaz aylarında sona erdi. Hem Dürzilerin saldırılarını engelleyememesi hem de Osmanlı ve Avrupa’nın desteğiyle Lübnan’da yeni yönetimin kurulması için yapılan müdahale ile destekçileri de dağıldı.[af] Makdisi, U. (2000). “Corrupting the Sublime Sultanate: The Revolt of Tanyus Shahin in Nineteenth-Century Ottoman Lebanon”. Comparative Studies in Society and History, Vol. 42, No.1, s. 207 [/af] Lübnan’ı yerelden yönetmek için kurulan bu sistem sadece yirmi yıl yaşayabildi. Bölgeyi ikiye ayıran kaymakamlık sistemi, yöneticilik iddiasındaki Maruni ve Dürzi iki aile arasında paylaştırılmasına karşın hem iç hem de dış etkenler sebebiyle bu varlığını sürdüremedi. Esasen ülkenin sosyolojik ve ekonomik yapısı da İstanbul ve Avrupalıların isteklerine uymuyordu. Öyle görünüyor ki 1842 yılında getirilen bu ikili sistem, Mısır işgalinin ardından hızla ve kısa sürede bölgeye istikrarlı bir çözüm olması amacıyla basit bir düşünce üzerine kurulmuştu.
Osmanlı İki Kaymakamlık yerine Mutasarruflık sistemini getirdi. Artin Davud Paşa, ilk Mutasarruf olarak bölgeye atandı. Osmanlı ilk olarak bölgede barış ve istikrar ortamını kurmayı amaçladı. Bunun için çatışmalardan zarar gören halka, hazineden yardımda bulundu. Asayişi sağlaması amacıyla da Jandarma kuruldu. Vergilerde muafiyetlere, özel kredi olanaklarına ve Lübnan Dağları’ndaki zararı kapatabilmek amacıyla da çeşitli teşvikler çıkarıldı.[af] Akarlı, E. “The Long Peace: Ottoman Lebanon, 1861-1920”. California: University of California Press, 1993, s. 36 [/af] Lübnan’daki Hıristiyan topluluklar, uluslararası camia tarafından tanındı ve Maruniler bu dönemde yükselişe geçmeye başladı.[af] Hazran, Y. (2009). “Between Authenticity and Alienation: The Druzes and Lebanon’s History”. Bulletin of the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, Vol. 72, No. 3, s. 465 [/af] Bu yükselişin en büyük etmenlerinden birisi de Fransa’ya ait askeri birliğin, Lübnan Dağları’na sevk edilmesi ve Dürzi liderliğin bölgeden ayrılması oldu. Bununla birlikte Fransa, dağın yöneticiliği için Mecid Şihab’ı aday gösterecek kadar olaylara müdahil oldu. Ayrıca bu süreçte Lübnan’a uluslararası kamuoyundan komisyonlar gelerek, bölgedeki etnik unsurlarla doğrudan iletişim haline geçiyorlardı.[af] J. P. Spagnolo. (1971). “Constitutional Change in Mount Lebanon: 1861-1864”. Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 7, No. 1, s. 28 [/af] Bu iletişim hali I. Dünya Savaşı’na giden süreçte kendisini belli edecekti. Bir buçuk ay süren bu çatışmalar bastırıldıktan sonra Beyrut ve Seyda kentlerinde Müslüman-Hıristiyan komisyonları kuruldu. Bu komisyonlar ile çatışmalardan etkilenen sivil halka iki dini yapı ortak yardımlarda bulundular.[af] Gümüşsoy, E., ’’1860-61 Cebel-i Lübnan İsyanı ve Osmanlı Devleti’’ (2008). Askeri Tarih Araştırmaları Dergisi, Sayı: 12 Yıl: 6, s. 71 [/af] Haziran 1861’de yayınlanan Cebel-i Lübnan Nizamnamesi’ne göre bir idare meclisi kuruldu ve bölge, altı kazaya ayrıldı. Bu idare meclisinde; iki Maruni, iki Dürzi, iki Katolik, iki Ortodoks, iki Şii ve iki Sünni yer aldı. Bu kazaların başına o bölgedeki nüfus çoğunluğuna sahip olan din/mezhepten bir yönetici atandı.[af] Reyhan, C., ’’Cebel-i Lübnan Vilayet Nizamnamesi’’(2018). Memleket Siyaset Yönetim Dergisi, Sayı: 30, s. 2 [/af]
Lübnan, I. Dünya Savaşı’na kadar önceki yıllara göre barış içerisinde bir dönem geçirdi. Lübnan Dağları’nda egemen nihai bir emir yoktu, dış ülkelerin de müdahaleleriyle bölge dahilinde çeşitli din ve mezheplerden temsilciler, topluluklarının sorunlarını yönetim katında dile getirebiliyor, bunun çözümü için çalışıyorlardı. Bu süreçte Lübnan ve Suriye’de etkin olmayı amaçlayan Fransa, bölgedeki okullarında Frankofon yaşam tarzını ileriki yıllarda hükümete gelecek gençlere aktarmaya başladılar.
Fransa Hakimiyeti
Birinci Dünya Savaşı’nın sonlarına doğru Osmanlı, Orta Doğu’daki hakimiyetini kaybetmeye başladı. 1918 yılının Sonbahar aylarında Osmanlı birlikleri Adana’ya çekilirken, Suriye’deki vilayetler teker teker İngiltere ve Faysal’a bağlı Arapların kontrolüne geçti. 6 Ekim tarihinde ise Fransa, Beyrut’a çıkarma gerçekleştirdi. Ve böylece Osmanlı’nın Lübnan’daki hakimiyeti son bulmuş oldu.[af] Shaw, Standford, J., Shaw, Ezel K. “History of The Ottoman Empire and Modern Turkey Volume II: Reform, Revolution, and Republic: The Rise of Modern Turkey, 1808-1975”. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002, s. 327 [/af] 1 Eylül 1920 tarihinde Fransa, General Henri Gouraud yönetiminde “Büyük Lübnan”ın kurulduğunu açıkladı. Fransa, Orta Doğu’da istediği yayılmacılığı böylece resmi olarak sağlamış oluyordu. Ekonomik ve siyasi sebepler, ülkede ilerleyen yıllarda parçalı bir din ve mezhebe dayalı siyasi sistemin kurulmasına sebep olacaktı. Lübnan’a Suriye’den katılan topraklar sonucunda da Müslüman nüfus artmış, toplum tamamiyle mezheplere ayrılmış ve hepsine görece ayrı bir özerklik ve temsil hakkı tanınmış oldu. Osmanlı döneminde bir kadı, tüm mezheplerden olurken şimdi her mezhebin kendi kadısı vardı. Yüksek Komiser Gouraud, 1922 yılında önce 17 ve daha sonra da genişletilmiş bir şekilde, 1921 sayımına göre 30 üyelik bir Temsilciler Meclisi kurdu. Sayıma Müslümanların katılmaması, Meclis’te Hıristiyanların çoğunluğu oluşturmasına her ne kadar yarar sağlasa da Yüksek Komiser, alınan kararları veto etme hakkına sahip olduğu için etkili bir yasama organı kurulduğunu söylemek pek mümkün değil. 1926 yılının Mayıs ayında Lübnan, bağımsız bir devlet olarak anayasasını ilan ettiğini duyurdu. Senato, Meclis ve Cumhurbaşkanlığı makamından oluşan, Arapça ve Fransızca’nın resmi dil olarak tanındığı bir ülke olduğu belirtiliyordu.[af] Tanrıöver, B. (2009). “LEBANON: POLITICAL DILEMMA FROM 19TH CENTURY TO PRESENT”. (Yüksek Lisans Tezi). Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, s. 31-32 [/af]
Ne var ki Fransız Yüksek Komiser’in anayasayı askıya alma ve Meclis’i dağıtma gibi bir yetkisi vardı. Halkın egemenliği sadece sözde kalacak şekilde 1943 yılına kadar Lübnanlı yöneticiler ile Fransız komiser arasında sürtüşmeli ve anayasayı feshetmeli dönemler yaşanacaktı. Anayasa ilan edilmesine karşın birbirini dengeleyecek unsurlar bulunmuyordu. Cumhurbaşkanı çok geniş yetkilere sahipti. Vatana ihanet ve anayasa ihlali haricinde yaptıklarından dolayı sorumlu değildi. Kabineyi ve Meclis’i görevden alabiliyordu, uluslararası anlaşmalar yapabiliyor, bürokraside atamalar gerçekleştirebiliyordu. Buna karşın Hükümetin rolü tam belli değil veyahut taşıması gereken özellikleri barındırmıyordu. Kabineyi toplamak ve Meclis’te hükümeti temsil etmek haricinde Cumhurbaşkanı’na göre yetkileri oldukça sınırlıydı.[af] “Lebanon: Constitutional Law and the Political Rights of Religious Communities”. Law Library Of Congress, 2010, s. 5-6 [/af] 1932 yılına kadar Cumhurbaşkanı görevi Hıristiyanlarda olmasına karşın mezhepsel bir atama yapılmıyor, Fransa ile arası iyi olan bir lider yönetime seçiliyordu. Beyrut’taki Yüksek Komiser’in seçtiği bazı adaylar, Fransa Dışişleri Bakanlığı tarafından reddedilebiliyordu. Lakin başka birisinin tercih edilmesi, güdülen amaç dahilinde herhangi bir değişikliğe sebebiyet vermiyor sadece basit çıkar çatışmalarının sonucu oluyordu. 1932 yılında yapılan nüfus sayımı, günümüzde Lübnan için ezberlenen “Cumhurbaşkanı Maruni, Başbakan Sünni ve Meclis Başkanı Şii olmalı” kuralının temelini attı. Her ne kadar günümüzde bu nüfus oranı çok değişse de ülkedeki siyasi dengelerin yerinden oynamaması için siyasi seçkinler tarafından pandoranın kutusu gibi uzak durulan bir konu olma özelliğine sahip. Bu sayım kapsamında Lübnan’ın en kalabalık topluluğu yüzde 28.8 ile Maruniler oldu. Yüzde 22.4 ile Sünniler ikinci ve yüzde 19.6 ile de Şiiler üçüncü sırada gelerek ülke yönetiminin dağıtımında en üst sıraları alabildiler.[af] Faour, M. (2007). “Religion, Demography, and Politics in Lebanon”. Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 43, No. 6, s. 909 [/af]
Çatışmalar, Buhran ve Savaş: Sistem Sıkıntısı Devam Ediyor
1943 yılındaki bağımsızlığa kadar Lübnan’da çeşitli siyasi ve ekonomik krizler yaşandı. Bunlara bağlı olarak da sosyal sıkıntılar da kendisini gösterdi. Yüksek Komiserlik otokrat yüzünü göstermekten hiç çekinmiyordu. Lübnanlılara bağımsızlık sözü verilmesine karşın yerine getirilmemiş üstüne üstlük II. Dünya Savaşı’nın başlaması ile işler iyice karmaşık bir hal almıştı.
Irak ve Mısır’daki bağımsızlık hareketleri çoktan Fransızları rahatsız ediyordu. Vichy Hükümeti’nin iktidara gelmesi, General Charles de Gauelle’ün destek bulmak için yaptığı Orta Doğu ziyareti, bağımsızlık isteyen Lübnanlı ve Suriyelilerin istediği uygun ortamı bir türlü sağlayamıyordu. Önceki yıllarda Lübnan’daki Cumhurbaşkanlığı için adaylığını koyan Bişara Huri, Arap ülkelerine sık ziyaretler gerçekleştiriyor, bağımsız bir Lübnan için Riad es-Sulh ile çalışıyordu. Suriyeli Arap milliyetçileri çoktan kendisine desteklerini beyan etmişlerdi bile. Fransa nihai olarak seçimlere izin verdiği zaman 21 Eylül 1943 yılında Bişara Huri Cumhurbaşkanı seçilerek, Riad es-Sulh’ün de Başbakan olarak Hükümeti kurmasını istedi. 1989 yılındaki Taif Anlaşması’na kadar Lübnan’daki temsil oranı 55 kişilik Meclis’te 30 Hıristiyan ve 25 Müslüman olmak üzere 6/5 oranında kaldı.[af] Traboulsi, F. (2012) A History Of Modern Lebanon (Second Edition). London: Pluto Press, s.106 [/af] Ulusal Pakt olarak bilinen ve yukarıda bahsettiğimiz yönetimin üç mezhebe dağıtılması iki lider arasında yapılan bir anlaşmayla Lübnan’ın yeni bir hayatındaki mihenk taşı oldu.
Lübnan’ın resmi olarak 18 mezhebe/dine bölünerek her topluluğun kendini temsil edebilmesi düşüncesi gün geçtikçe ülkedeki sinir uçlarını zorluyordu. Manda yönetimi altında kurulduğu ilk günden beri siyasi seçkinlerin ve kilisenin çekişmelerine sahne olan Lübnan, bunun ilk sıkıntısını 1958 yılında yaşadı.
1958 Buhranı’nın asıl nedeni mezhep ve din değildi. Ancak mezhep ve din temeline oturtulmuş politikanın getirdiği siyasi ortam buhrana neden olmuştu. Cumhurbaşkanı’nın daha da imtiyazlı olması ve meclisteki orantısız temsil bu dönemin Arap milliyetçileri tarafından protesto edilen bir durumdu. Cumhurbaşkanı Kamil Şamun’un Amerika’ya bir çağrı yaptı ve ülkedeki siyasi kriz iç savaşa dönmeden durduruldu. Ancak derin ayrılıkların biriktirdiği çekişmeyi tutabilecek bir baraj değildi. Nüfus oranlarını ülkedeki siyasi varlıklarının teminatı olarak gören Maruniler, İsrail’in işgal ve genişlemesi sebebiyle Filistinlilerin Lübnan’a göç etmesinden çok rahatsız oldular. Bu sebeple Filistinlilere vatandaşlık verilmedi ve ‘misafir’ gözüyle bakıldı. Bu durumda pek çok siyasi çatlağa neden oldu.
Filistin Kurtuluş Örgütü’nün (FKÖ) ülkedeki varlığı sebebiyle Falanjistler nizami bir şekilde silahlanıyorlardı. Lübnan Ordusu haricinde yönetimde etkin bu parti de bazı yerlerde FKÖ ile çatışma yaşamaya başladı. Statükonun en büyük koruyucuları arasında olan bu Maruniler, sistemin bozulmaması için ellerinden geldiğince uğraşıyorlardı. 1975 yılında başlayan Lübnan İç Savaşı, o güne kadar ülkede yaşanan bütün olayların patlama noktası oldu. Ekonomik, sosyolojik ve mezhepsel/dini tüm sorunların patlak verdiği on beş yıllık kaos ortamına şahit olundu. Her ne kadar Hıristiyan ve Müslüman çatışmaları ile başlasa da kısa süre içerisinde bu topluluklar, kendi içlerinde savaşmaya başladılar.
Mezhepsel farklılık gütmeyen komünist ve milliyetçi partilerde farklı mezhep ve dinden savaşçılar yan yana savaşıyordu. Hatta kendi mezheplerinden olan milis liderlerine suikastler gerçekleştiriyorlardı. Bu süreçte 1943 yılındaki Ulusal Pakt’a uygun hükümetler kuruluyor lakin herhangi bir işe yaramıyorlardı.
Siyasi seçkinlere karşı olanlar da bu süreçte askeri gücü ellerinde barındırmaları sebebiyle karşı oldukları bu seçkinler sınıfına girerek yeni Lübnan’ın statükosunu koruyacak sınıfın temsilcisi olma yolunda gidiyorlardı.
‘Galip Yok, Mağlup Yok’: Taif Anlaşması
1989 yılında yabancı ülkelerin dahil olmasıyla Taif Anlaşması ile Lübnan İç Savaşı’na son verildi. Ulusal Pakt’ın kırk altı yıl sonraki bir düzenlemesi olan bu anlaşma ile Hıristiyanlar ve Müslümanların kamuda temsil hakları dengelendi. 6/5 oranındaki üstünlük 5/5 oranında eşitlendi. Cumhurbaşkanı, Başbakan ve Meclis Başkanı yine aynı mezheplere verildi. Kabinedeki bakan sayısı 30’a çıkarılırken, 128 milletvekili koltuğu,1932 sayımına göre topluluklar arasında dağıtıldı. Kamuda işe girebilmek için aranan mezhep ve din kotası her ne kadar bu anlaşma ile korunsa da nihai olarak 2009 yılında kaldırıldı.[af] John Nagle (2016). “Between entrenchment, reform and transformation: ethnicity and Lebanon’s consociational democracy”. Democratization, Vol. 23, No.7, s. 1148 [/af] Taif Anlaşması kabaca; Lübnan’ın siyasi ve sosyal yapısının çeşitliliği göz önüne alınarak mezhep ve dinlere güç dağıtımında denge getirmeyi ve Cumhurbaşkanı’ndaki yürütme gücünü Hükümet’e kaydırmayı gerçekleştirdi. Birçok alt konuda ise yine bu dağılımların eşit yapılmasını amaç edindi. Ve hatta ülkedeki mezhep/dine bağlı sistemin kaldırılması için çalışmalar yapılmasını vaad etmesine rağmen bu konu hiç açılmadı.[af] Bahout, J. (2016). “THE UNRAVELING OF LEBANON’S TAIF AGREEMENT: Limits of Sect-Based Power Sharing”. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. s. 9 [/af]
Taif Anlaşması’nın üzerinden otuz yıl geçti ve bu süreçte Lübnan, birçok badire atlattı. 1990’lı yıllardaki savaş sonrası dönemde ekonomik toparlanma, 2005 ve 2006 yılındaki siyasi suikastler, Sedir Devrimi havası, Şam’ın çekilmesi[af] İç savaş döneminde Suriye Ordusu Lübnan’a girmiş ve Hristiyanları desteklemişti [/af] ve İsrail ile Hizbullah’ın savaşı[af] 12 Temmuz 2006 – 14 Ağustos 2006 tarihleri arasında Lübnan’ın güneyindeki savaş [/af] ülke insanına siyasetten doğan hayatın zorluğunu dayatıyordu. Dış ülkelerle sorun yaşanmasa dahi partilerin birbirleriyle yaşadıkları siyasi çekişmeler bazı zamanlar silahlı çatışmalara dönüyor ve tıpkı 2008 yılında olduğu gibi Doha Anlaşması ile Hizbullah’a siyasi kanatta güç kazandırıyordu.[af] Katar’ın Doha şehrinde Arap Birliği arabulucuğunda 5 gün süren Lübnan’daki taraflar arasındaki barış görüşmelerinde, Hizbullah’ın siyasi olarak Lübnan’da etkin bir güç olmasının yolu açıldı [/af]
İç savaştan sonra hiç düşmeyen enflasyon, elektrik sorunu, yeni istihdam alanlarının oluşturulmasında eksiklik, üretimin artırılamaması, kamu hizmetlerinin verimsizliği vb. nice sebepler, devletin gerektiği yerde hayata müdahil olmaması Lübnan halkına günlük yaşamda doğrudan olumsuz etki ediyordu. İttifakların yaşadıkları mücadeleler ve güç dengelerinin sürekli değişimi ülkeye yeni hiçbir şey sunmuyordu. Savaş sonrası Lübnan’daki siyasi ortam da çıkılması güç bir labirent halini aldı. Lübnan statükosunu uzun yıllar boyunca korumaya çalışan ve bunun için silahlanan Falanjistler ile sisteme tamamiyle karşı olan önemli sayıdaki Dürzinin desteklediği İlerici Sosyalist Parti, kendilerini aynı siyasi kampın içerisinde buldular. Bir dönem ülkedeki gücü ellerinde bulunduran partiler, zaman içerisinde sisteme muhalif bir hale büründüler. Kuruluşlarının temeli Lübnan’ın eksik bir devlet olmasında yatan Şii partiler ise bir dönem düşman oldukları Özgür Vatansever Partisi (ÖVP) ile ittifak oluşturarak statükonun teminatı haline geldiler. Lübnan’da bir sonraki seçimlere kadar ÖVP ve Hizbullah birlikteliği ellerinde Cumhurbaşkanlığı ve Başbakanlık makamlarını barındırıyor.
Bu süreçte yönetimin alışagelmiş siyasi partiler ve bir dönemin toprak ağaları arasında el değiştirmesine tepki gösteren genç bir nesil de oluşuyordu. Yaşanan bütün siyasi çekişmelerden uzak, ekonomik ve sosyal sıkıntıların gün geçtikçe arttığı, bölgesel veyahut küresel herhangi bir krizde bu sıkıntıların ülkeyi durma noktasına getirmesine tepki gösterenler gün yüzüne çıkmaya başladı. Lübnan Lirasının yüzde seksen oranında değer kaybetmesi, gıda maddelerine ulaşmadaki sıkıntı, ülkenin kuzeyindeki halkın gittikçe fakirleşmesi, Beyrut’ta artan hırsızlık vakaları ve insanların çaresizliklerinin giderek yayılması halkın tepki göstermelerine yol açtı. Lübnan’a dair bütün tabuları yıkmaya hazır bu genç nüfus, mezhep ve dine dayalı olarak siyasi partilerin mücadelelerle birbirleri arasında köşe kapmaca oynadıkları devlet kurumlarından ayrılmalarını istiyorlar. Ülkedeki sistemin dini ve mezhebi dağılıma göre ve bir partinin çıkarına değil Lübnan ve halka hizmet edecek tarafsız olmasını talep ediyorlar.
Arap Baharı boyunca 2015 yılı haricinde pek ortaya çıkmayan bu kitle, 2019 yılının Ekim ayında bir verginin onaylanmasının ardından “devrim” isteğiyle sokağa çıktı. COVID-19 ve Beyrut Limanı’ndaki patlamada hükümetlerin hatası ile sokaklarda Fransa’nın kurduğu bu dini ve mezhepsel sistemin artık bitirilmesini aylar boyunca ısrarla dile getirdiler. Siyasi partiler tarafından desteklenen bir teknokrat hükümetin de başarısız olmasıyla Fransa Cumhurbaşkanı Emmanuel Macron, “Büyük Lübnan”ın kuruluşunun yüzüncü yılında ülkede başka bir sistem kurmayı Beyrut sokaklarında dile getirdikten sonra ülkeden ayrıldı. Tarihi olgular arasından sadece Lübnan ile Fransa’nın frankofon ve manda geçmişini çekip çıkaran Macron, başarısız bir devlet olmaya mahkûm olan Lübnan’ın kuruluşundaki Fransız rolünü atlayarak bunu geçmiş hükümetlere yıkmayı tercih etti.
Lübnan’ın yüzüncü yılına yaklaşırken, yeni bir Lübnan kurmayı vaat eden Macron’un Beyrut’a dönerken Amerika ve Rusya’nın da yardımını alarak uzun vadede ülkeye yardım etme ihtimali şimdilik belirsizliğini koruyor.
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