The geopolıtıcs of Ethıopıa-Tıgray conflct

Ethiopia had become a geopolitical powerhouse in the Horn of Africa since the ‘‘war on terror’’ commenced in the early 2000s. The US, which was concerned about the threat of Al-Qaeda and other radical groups in Somalia and Sudan funded and modernized Ethiopia’s vast army. Indeed, Ethiopia became the US’s prime geopolitical interlocutor in the region. This played into the hands of Ethiopia which was then worried about both nationalist and radical groups in Somalia, Secessionist rebel groups, the Eritrean regime and the neighbouring Gulf States.

However, the ascent to power by Abiy Ahmed recalibrated Ethiopia’s foreign policy and geopolitical agendas. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took these geopolitical re-orientations in considerations of Ethiopia’s internal politics, which he wanted to restructure.

Tasked with a transition that many expected to propel Ethiopia into democracy and stability after years of anti-government protests and ethnic violence, Abiy Ahmed took bold steps both in internal politics and in foreign policy[af] Abiy Ahmed: America’s Checkmate in East Africa’s Geopolitical Chessboard [/af].

However, reforms were impossible in the face of threats from the old-guard TPLF and the Eritrean regime. The Prime Minister had to be pragmatic and equally swift.

With abrupt and surprising visits to Eritrea, bonds were strengthened with Asmara. This also played into the hands of Eritrea, a country that was a geopolitical pariah for decades and slammed with numerous sanctions by the US. Moreover, in late 2018, Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea undertook their first tri-partite talks about regional politics and security. Diplomatic rapprochements in the horn surprised many. Nevertheless, sceptics questioned the substantiality of these warming ties given the regions’ persistent conflicts and capricious politics.

Abiy Ahmed and Isaias Afewerki, the President of Eritrea, both visited Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) simultaneously and together. Both leaders were awarded medals of honours; this was more than a symbolic gesture. The Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region were undergoing tectonic shifts in terms of geopolitics. Gulf States worried about Chinese and Turkish geopolitical ventures into the region were prepared to counter. UAE installed a military base in Eritrea and planned a naval post in the break-away region of Somaliland. The Horn of Africa became a geopolitical battle-ground.

With Eritrea and Somalia on his side, the Prime Minister was less worried about threats from the TPLF and their political maneuverings. However, the TPLF would become a stubborn thorn in the Prime Minister’s flesh. Moreover, there was a bigger geopolitical threat: talks with Sudan and Egypt about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) were in stalemate. Even a possible and inevitable military confrontation was on the mouths of diplomats and regional observers in the event the talks fail. President Donald Trump’s tweet that Egypt could bomb the dam was a realistic concern and not a diplomatic gaffe.