Orta Doğu siyasetinin hiç şüphesiz en önemli politik aktörlerinden biri İhvan-ı Müslimin hareketi olmuştur. Mısır’ın İsmailiyye kentinde 1926 yılında genç bir öğretmen olan Hasan el-Benna ve yedi arkadaşı tarafından kurulan bu örgüt, ilerleyen yıllarda hem Mısır’ın bütün şehirlerine hem de Orta Doğu’nun pek çok ülkesine yayıldı. Hareketin Suriye tecrübesi ise diğer ülkelerden biraz daha dramatik bir seyir izledi. İhvan hareketi, Suriye’deki ilk faaliyetlerine 1936 yılında başlasa da ülkedeki resmi kuruluşu cemaatin ilk kongresinin yapıldığı 1937’ye tarihlenir.
1930’lu yılların başında el-Ezher Üniversitesi’nde eğitim almak üzere Kahire’ye giden Mustafa el-Sibai ve Muhammed el-Hamid gibi isimler, burada cemaatin ana kadrosuyla tanışmış ve 1936 yılında Suriye’ye döndüklerinde cemaatin örgütlenmesini Suriye’ye de taşımıştır.[af] الإخوان المسلمون في سوريا [/af] 1936 yılı ile Suriye’nin bağımsızlığını kazandığı 1946 yılı arasında cemaatin faaliyetleri farklı isimlere sahip küçük gruplar tarafından sürdürülüyordu. Bunun sebebi Fransız mandasının ülkede yerel örgütlenmelere kurduğu baskıyla açıklanabilir.[af] Raphael Lefavre, Ashes Of Hama, Oxford Üniversitesi, 2013, s.23-24 [/af]
İmparatorluk sonrası Orta Doğu’nun siyasal ortamı İhvan olarak anılan cemaat örgütlenmesinin temsil ettiği İslamcılık düşüncesi ile Arap milliyetçiliği ve Nasyonal-Sosyalizmle rekabet içine girmiştir. Fransız mandası sonrasındaki dönemde Suriye’deki durum da bundan farklı değildi. İslamcı düşüncenin Suriye’deki kökenleri 19. Yüzyıla dayanmaktadır. 19. yüzyılda imparatorluğun batı karşısında yenik düşmesi, İstanbul’u çeşitli reformlara yöneltmişti. Suriye’de bu reformların fikri alandaki etkisi ulemanın geleneksel otoritesinin zayıflamasına ve fikri reform hareketlerinin ortaya çıkmasına sebep olmuştu.[af] David Dean Commins, Son Dönem Osmanlı Suriyesi’nde Islahat Hareketleri, Mahya yayınları, 2014, s.21 [/af] Yüzyıl boyunca Müslüman kesimlerde dini modernleşme hareketleri öne çıkarken özellikle yüzyılın sonunda büyük oranda Hristiyanlar arasında Arap milliyetçiliği ve Arap kimliğinin yeniden inşası gibi düşünceler etkili olmuştur. 20’inci yüzyılda ise Arap milliyetçiliğinin yanına bir de sosyalist düşünce eklenmiştir. Dolayısıyla bu ideolojiler, Suriye’de bağımsızlık sonrası dönemde iktidar-muhalefet ilişkisinin ideolojik zeminini oluşturdu.
Baas Partisi ve İhvan
İhvan-ı Müslimin hareketi, 1936-1946 arası dönemde yukarıda da işaret ettiğimiz gibi açık örgütlenme olmadan farklı isimlerdeki gruplar üzerinden faaliyetlerini sürdürürken Fransızların Suriye’den çekildiği 1946 yılından itibaren İhvan-ı Müslimin ismini kullanmaya başladı. Bağımsızlık sonrası dönemde Suriye’de çok sesli bir siyasal hayat görülmekteydi. İhvan hareketi, Mısır’daki ana merkezde olduğu gibi gücünü pazar esnafları, bürokratlar ve öğretmenler gibi orta-alt sınıftan almaktaydı. İhvan’ın dışında daha radikal selefi düşünceleri savunan İslamcı gruplar da bulunmaktaydı. Buna karşılık ülkede güçlü siyasi partiler ortaya çıkmıştır. Örneğin bağımsızlık sonrası Suriye’de Cumhurbaşkanlığı yapmış Şükrü Kuvvetli ve Haşim el-Attasi liderliğindeki Halk Cephesi parlamentoda çoğunluğu elde etmiştir. Bununla birlikte, Lübnan Komünist Partisi, 1930 yılında Komünist siyasetçi Halit Bektaş’ın partiye katılmasıyla birlikte Suriye genelinde güç elde etmiştir. Ayrıca Şibli Şumayil ve Mustafa Satı el-Husri gibi Sosyalist ve Arap milliyetçisi düşünürlerin etkisiyle Suriye’de sosyalist ve Arap milliyetçisi oluşumlar da görülmekteydi. Baas Partisi de tıpkı İhvan gibi bağımsızlık öncesi entelektüel hareketken bağımsızlık sonrası Hristiyan Mişel Eflak ve Sünni Salah Bitar tarafından kurulmuştu. Partiye asıl ismini veren kişi ise Zeki Arsuzi olmuştur.
Suriye’deki bu çok sesli siyasal atmosferde İhvan hareketi, Mısır’daki ana merkezden farklı olarak politik bir karşı çıkıştan çok misyoner bir yapı halindeydi. Ancak bu çok seslilik Suriye’de çok fazla sürmemiş ve Manda sonrasını takip eden 3 yılın ardından Suriye’nin sonraki 20 yılına damgasını vuracak darbeler dönemi başlamıştır. 1949 yılında Hüsnü Zaim, Sami Hınnavi ve Edip Çiçekli tarafından birkaç aylık aralarla yapılan askeri darbeler, Suriye’deki siyasi düzenin ordu tarafından yönlendirileceğini ortaya koymuştu. Ancak Suriye ihvanının politik bir hüviyet kazanması ve bir nevi muhalefet rolüne geçmesi Baas Partisi’nin giderek güçlenmesi ve 1958 yılındaki Mısır-Suriye Birleşik Arap Cumhuriyeti’nin kurulmasıyla olmuştur. Hareket, Mısır’daki baş düşmanı Cemal Abdunnasır’ın Suriye’de etkin olmasına karşı çıkmıştır. Bu noktada Suriye’de Baas Partisi ve İhvan, rekabet etmeye başladı. İki taraf arasındaki ilk rekabet ‘50’li yılların başında dinin Suriye’deki yeri tartışmasıyla başlamıştı. İhvan, “İslam, yalnızca bir din değil aynı zamanda devlettir” fikrini savunurken, Baas Partisi “Din Allah’ın, devlet herkesindir” sloganını bayraklaştırıyordu.[af] Raphael Lefavre, Ashes Of Hama, Oxford Üniversitesi, 2013, s.44 [/af]
Baas Partisi ile İhvan arasında daha sonra dört kopuş noktası ortaya çıktı. Bunlar İhvan açısından Suriye’deki muhalefetin önemli bir parçası olmak, azınlık yönetime karşı Sünni öfkenin odağı olmak ve nihayet sahadan silinmek, ardından yeniden küllerinden doğmak fırsatı veren kopuşlardı. 1963 yılındaki Baas darbesinin ardından Suriye’nin İslamcı muhalefetinin odağına oturan İhvan, 1970 yılındaki darbeyle Nusayri azınlığın iktidarı ele geçirmesiyle Nusayri azınlığın iktidarına karşı Sünni öfkenin temsilcisi olmuştur. 1982’deki Hama katliamı ise İhvan hareketini ve beraberinde bütün muhalefeti sahadan silmiştir. Aslında bu kopuşların seyrini tayin eden temel mesele İhvan’ın tavrından çok Baas Partisi’nin ideolojik yönelimini değiştiren hadiseler olmuştur. Zira en başından beri İhvan’ın durduğu nokta değişmemiştir. Baas partisi ise yaşanan her darbenin ardından ideolojik değişimlere uğramış ve nihayet Hafız Esed ile birlikte mezhepçi bir aile ve etrafındaki müttefik grupların partisi haline gelmiştir.
Öte yandan, Suriye-Mısır arasında kurulan birliğe İhvanla birlikte ordudaki muhafazakâr subaylar da karşı çıkıyordu. 1961 yılında Abdulkerim el-Nahlavi liderliğinde yapılan askeri darbe bir taraftan birlik döneminde iyice güçlenen Nasyonal-Sosyalist bloğa karşı muhafazakâr kanadı yeniden sahneye çıkarırken diğer taraftan birliği bitirmişti. Baas Partisi, darbeye karşı çıkıyordu ancak darbeciler İhvan üyesi Maruf el-Devalibi’yi Başbakanlık koltuğuna oturtmuştu.[af] Sabahaddin Şen, Ortadoğu’da İdeolojik Bunalım, Birey Yayınları, 2004, s.221 [/af] Muhafazakarların ve dolayısıyla İhvan’ın bu zaferi çok uzun sürmedi. Baas Partisi’nin iki kurucusu Eflak ve Bitar, her ne kadar iktidarı güç kullanarak ele geçirme seçeneğini istemese de partiye bağlı subaylar 1963 yılında yeni bir darbe yaptı. Bu darbe, muhafazakâr kesimi ezip geçerken İhvan ile Baas arasındaki ilk kopuşa da yol açtı. Ayrıca bir ay evvel Irak’ta yaşanan bir darbeyle orada da iktidara Baas Partisi gelmişti. Suriye’deki darbenin ardından İhvan’ın Baas iktidarına karşı ilk kitlesel kalkışması Hama’da yaşandı ve bu kalkışma İhvan’ı Baas hükümetine karşı muhalefetin odağına oturttu.
Dönemin Hama Valisi Abdulhalim Haddam tarafından okullarda anti seküler ve Baas partisi aleyhine propaganda yaptıkları gerekçesiyle üç öğrencinin ülkenin doğusundaki Deyr-i Zor kentine sürülmesini protesto eden kentteki Sultan Camii imamı Şeyh Muhammed el-Hamid, partiden “İslam düşmanı” olarak söz etmişti. Daha sonra sokağa taşan öfkeli kalabalıkta yaşanan arbedede Baas partisi yandaşı bir genç öldürülünce hükümet Hama’ya kuvvet sevk etti. Bu sırada İslamcı gençler de Sultan Camii’ni bir üsse çevirmişti. Cami bombalandı ve karışıklıklar kontrol altına alındı. Bu İhvan ile hükümet arasındaki ilk ciddi sürtüşmeydi. Parti içindeki bazı çevreler cemaatin yasaklanması ve güç kullanılmasından yana olsa da o günlerde parti yönetiminde bulunan Eflak ve Bitar bunu kabul etmedi. Zira Bitar’ın kendisi de Sünni idi ve bu sebeple Sünni tabanı kaybetmek istemiyordu.[af] Raphael Lefavre, Ashes Of Hama, Oxford Üniversitesi, 2013, s.44-45 [/af] Ancak daha sonra önce Bitar, ardından Eflak partiden tasfiye edilecek ve her ikisi de ülkeden kaçmak zorunda kalacaktı.
İhvan ile Baas arasındaki mücadelenin sertleşmesi aslında Baas’ın giderek Nusayri-Alevi subayların kontrolüne girmesiyle olmuştur. Bu durum İhvan’ı Suriye’deki çoğunluk Sünnilerin rejime karşı itirazının odağına dolayısıyla ana muhalif oluşum noktasına taşımıştır. 1966 yılında Salah Cedid ve Hafız Esed liderliğinde Nusayri ve az da olsa Dürzi subayların oluşturduğu cunta yönetime el koydu. Cedid döneminde Suveyde’de yaşanan bir Dürzi isyanıyla Dürziler de partiden tasfiye edilmiş ve nihayet 1970 yılında Hafız Esed’in darbesiyle Nusayri-Alevi tabanlı Esed rejimi kurulmuştu.
İhvan Cemaati, 1970-1980 döneminde rejimin baskılarına karşı yer altı örgütlenmeye gitmiştir. Hafız Esed’in 1970’teki darbesi, Baas Partisi’nin ideolojisini ve karakterini değiştirmiş partide, resmi olmasa da Nasyonal-Sosyalizm’den Esedizm’e geçiş süreci yaşanmıştır. Esed iktidarı boyunca iki önemli politika izledi; 1- Yönetimine herhangi bir tehdide izin vermemek, 2- Politikalarına geniş bir kitle desteği sağlamak.[af] Sabahaddin Şen, Ortadoğu’da İdeolojik Bunalım, Birey Yayınları, 2004, s.270 [/af] Öyle anlaşılıyor ki Nusayri-Alevi rejime karşı çıkan Sünnilerin çoğu bu süreçte İhvan’ın arkasında saf tutuyordu. 1979 yılında Halep’teki Askeri Akademi öğrencilerinin bir isyan başlatması rejim ile İhvan arasında gerilimi zirveye taşıdı. İhvan her ne kadar silahlı bir yapı olmasa da Esed rejimi döneminde Said Havva, Ali el-Beyanuni ve Adnan Saadeddin gibi İhvan liderleri “Cihat” temelli bir hareket tarzı benimsemiştir. Bu söylem, Nusayri rejime karşı taraftar bulmakta zorlanmazken İhvan hareketini de giderek farklı Sünni grupların azınlık iktidarına karşı muhalefetinin amiral gemisi haline getirdi. Sünni muhalif gruplar, İhvan’ın ağırlıklı olarak içinde bulunduğu İslami Cephe’de bir araya gelmiştir.
Hafız Esed, 1979’daki isyandan İhvan’ı sorumlu tutarak cemaat üyesi 15 tutukluyu idam ettirdi. Rejimin süren baskılarının ardından 1980 yılının haziran ayında Hafız Esed’in son anda kurtulduğu bir suikast düzenlendi. Bu suikastın ardından rejim Tedmür hapishanesinde çok sayıda muhalifi katletti. Rejimin artan baskılarına karşı Suriye’de şiddet de giderek artıyordu. 1982 yılının başında Hama’da patlak veren isyan bunu rejime açıkça göstermişti. İslami Cephe’ye bağlı silahlı gruplar kısa sürede kentin bir kısmını kontrol altına alınca Hafız Esed, Hama’ya kardeşi Rıfat Esed komutasında kuvvet göndererek buradaki isyanı bastırdı.
Rıfat Esed’in Hama ve civarında yürüttüğü askeri operasyonlar sonucunda binlerce insan öldürülmüş ve İhvan cemaati darmadağın olmuştur. Ülkedeki tek örgütlü ve geniş tabanlı oluşum böylece yok edilmiştir. Çünkü İhvan liderlerinin çoğu ya yurtdışına kaçmış ya hapsedilmiş ya da öldürülmüştür. Dolayısıyla bundan sonraki yaklaşık 20 yıllık süreçte İhvan dahil Suriye’de ciddi bir muhalefet görülmemiştir.
Muhalefetsiz dönem ve Beşşar Esed
Hama isyanı, Hafız Esed’i hem rakipsiz hale getirmiş hem de iktidarını sağlama alma şansı vermiştir. Buna karşılık isyanın başarısızlığı İhvan cemaatini bölmüştür. Said Havva ve arkadaşlarının hareket tarzı eleştirilere maruz kalırken sonuçta 80li ve 90lı yıllar boyunca Suriye’de açık bir muhalefet hareketi görülmediğinden İhvan’ın Suriye muhalefeti içindeki etkisi üzerine bir tahminde bulunmak oldukça güçtür.
İhvan hareketi, bu dönemde faaliyetlerini başta Ürdün ve Avrupa olmak üzere yurtdışında sürdürmekle birlikte ılımlı bir dil kullanmıştır. Zira artık hareket, rejimin muhalefete nasıl bir karşılık vereceğini anlamıştı.[af] Tuba Yıldız, yüksek lisans tezi “Sünni muhalefet hareketi olarak İhvan-ı Müslimin”, s.117 [/af] Bu sebeple, hareket 70’li ve 80’li yıllardaki anti-Nusayri politikasını değiştirerek daha ılımlı bir dil kullansa da Hama’nın ardından aldığı yara hiçbir zaman kapanmadı. Zira Suriye’de harekete karşı ciddi bir güvensizlik oluşmuştu.
Açıkçası Suriye’de İhvan’a karşı olan bu güvensizliği Türkiye’de Hizbullah’a karşı olan güvensizlikle kıyaslamak mümkündür. Türkiye’de domuz bağı gibi uygulamalarla adı anılan Hizbullah gibi Suriye’de de ihvan deyince akla hep Hama ve arkasından hapishanede yaşanan sahipsizlik ve kötü hatıralar geliyor. Elbette Suriye’deki muhalefetin sahadan çekilmesinin tek sebebi bu değildi. Hafız Esed, Hama olaylarının ardından İhvan cemaatine üye olmayı idamla cezalandıran bir kanun değişikliği de yaptı ve bu kanun halen yürürlükte.
Hafız Esed’in 2000 yılındaki ölümü muhalif oluşumlara rahatlama umudu vermiştir. Zira yerine Cumhurbaşkanlığına getirilen oğlu Beşşar Esed, batıda eğitim görmüş modern ve özgürlükçü bir görünüm veriyordu. Beşşar Esed dönemi hapishanelerdeki muhaliflerin affedilmesi ve yeni açılımlarla başlamıştı. Suriye’deki çok sayıda siyasetçi ve entelektüel Şam Deklarasyonu’nu yayımlamış rejime bazı reform önerileri sunmuştu. Bu iklim içinde zaten Hama’dan sonra daha ılımlı bir politika izleyen İhvan hareketinin de umutlandığı görülüyor. Cemaatin o dönemki lideri Ali Saadeddin el-Beyanuni, 17 Temmuz 2000 tarihinde el-Cezire’ye verdiği röportajda, “Beşşar Esed, kendisinden önce yaşananlardan sorumlu değildir. Onun sorumluluğu Cumhurbaşkanlığı yeminini ettikten sonra başlar”[af] Hanlie Booysen, “Surviving The Syrian Uprising: The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood”, New Opposition in the Middle East (pp.151-175), Eylül 2018, s156 [/af] demiştir. Şiddet ve bastırılmayla geçen 30 yıllık sürenin ardından İhvanla birlikte Suriye muhalefeti yeni bir açılım bekliyordu ancak muhalefet bu beklentiyle de bir 10 yıl daha geçirdi. Beşşar Esed hiçbir açılım yapmamakla birlikte beklenilen hiçbir reformu da hayata geçirmedi.
Suriye Devrimi ve İhvan
Suriye’de birçok kesim Beşşar Esed’in reform vaatlerinin gerçekleşmesini umutsuzca beklerken 2010 yılının aralık ayında Tunus’ta başlayan Arap Baharı, Suriyelilerin beklentilerine farklı bir boyut kazandırmıştır. Arap Baharı ile başlayan isyan silsilesi 15 Mart 2011’de Suriye’ye ulaştı. İlk protestoların ülkenin güneyindeki Dera’da başlamasının ardından yapılan bütün reform çağrılarına, rejimin yine şiddet ve katliamlarla karşılık vermesi zaten umutsuz olan reform beklentilerini sona erdirmiş “halk reform istiyor” sloganları yerini “halk rejimin yıkılmasını istiyor”
İhvan’ın Suriye’deki isyana olan yaklaşımı umut ve şaşkınlık arasında şekillenmiştir. Zira isyan hareketi halk tabanlı olarak beklenmedik bir şekilde kısa sürede Suriye şehirlerinin tamamına yayılmıştır. İhvan hareketi, henüz Tunus’taki isyan sonlanmadan Facebook aracılığıyla açtığı “Suriye devrimi” sayfasıyla Suriye’de rejime karşı hareketlilik çağrıları yapıyordu. 15 Mart 2011’de Suriye devriminin başlamasının ardından bu sayfa Suriye’de yaşananları dünya kamuoyuna taşıma çabalarına girişti.
Sayfanın kullandığı dil her ne kadar bütün Suriye’ye hitap etme iddiası taşısa da “İslam fütuhatlarına” ve “Suriye’nin İslami kimliğine” yapılan vurgular, hareketin 70’li yıllardaki diline benziyordu. Zira hareket, sürgünde kaldığı otuz yılda Suriye halkıyla olan bağlantılarını yitirmişti. Devrimin başlangıçta açık olarak İslami bir muhalefet şeklinde değil de rejime karşı duyulan halk öfkesi şeklinde yayılması Cemaatte bir şaşkınlık yaratmıştır. Kısa sürede açılan sayfanın ismi “Beşşar Esed’e karşı Suriye devrimi” şeklinde değiştirildi.[af] عودة إخوان سوريا من بوابة فيسبوك 2011 [/af]
Suriye devrimi, Esed rejiminin sert yöntemleri nedeniyle kısa sürede silahlı bir harekete dönüşünce sözün hükmü çok fazla kalmamıştır. Bu kez muhalefet, İhvan üzerinden değil halka silah doğrultmayıp ordudan ayrılan ÖSO subayları üzerinden yürüyordu.
İhvan kısa sürede isyanı kendisine mal edemeyeceğini anlamış ve 15 Eylül 2011’de kurulan Suriye Ulusal Meclisi’ne muhalif bir hareket olarak katılmıştı. Ancak devrimin giderek silahlı bir hareket haline dönüşmesi İhvan açısından sahaya giriş imkânı bırakmamıştır. Buna rağmen ilk dönemde kurulan Ahraru’ş Şam ve Nusret Cephesi gibi silahlı muhalif oluşumların kurucularının büyük oranda Hama katliamı sonrası hapishanelere atıldıktan sonra devrimin ardından serbest kalan kişilerden oluşması dikkat çekicidir. Ayrıca, Feylaku’ş Şam gibi başka silahlı gruplar da İhvan’a nispet edilmiştir. Suriye’deki İslamcı muhalefetin kökeninin büyük ölçüde İslami Cephe’ye dayanması sebebiyle devrim sonrasında ortaya çıkan silahlı İslamcı grupların İhvan’a nispet edilmesi doğal bir durum olmakla birlikte süreç içerinde İhvan’ın herhangi bir silahlı grubu sahiplenmemesi örgütün Hama sonrası takındığı ılımlı tavır ile örtüşmektedir. Öyle görülüyor ki Hama sonrası örgüt içinde yaşanan bölünmeler söz konusu grupları doğurmuş ancak bu grupların çoğunun üyeleri hapishanede olmaları sebebiyle devrim sonrası sahne alabilmiştir. Bunun yanında Suriye Ulusal Meclisi’nin de çoğunluğu İhvan hareketine üye olmak suçlamasıyla hapis yatmış kişilerden oluşuyordu. Bunun temel sebebi Esed rejimi döneminde örgütlü tek muhalefetin İhvan hareketi olması ve rejimin bütün muhaliflerine ihvan yaftası yapıştırarak tasfiye etme yoluna gitmesidir. Devrim sonrası kurulan muhalif oluşumlar İhvan hareketiyle bağlantılı olan oluşumlardan çok yerel silahlı komitalar şeklinde ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu da İhvan’ın sahayla çok fazla irtibat kurmasına olanak vermemiştir.
Buna rağmen devrimin ilk yıllarında çeşitli platformlarda etkin bir şekilde rol üstlenen İhvan hareketi, Mısır’da Abdulfettah es-Sisi’nin yaptığı darbenin ardından yaşanan gelişmeler ve Esed rejiminin Suriye’de şiddeti daha fazla artırarak krizi uluslararası bir sorun haline getirmesinin ardından etkisini iyice yitirmiştir. 2012-2016 arasındaki dönemde sahadaki silahlı grupların büyük çoğunluğu İslami bir dil kullansa da bu dil, İhvan’ın İslami dilinden çok el-Kaide gibi selefi örgütlerin İslami dilidir. Zira bunun sonucunda da el-Kaide’den doğan ancak çok daha radikal ve terörist bir yapılanma olan DAİŞ terör örgütü sahada ciddi bir ağırlık kazanmıştır. Bunun sebebinin şiddetin yükselmesiyle birlikte insanların savaşı dini duygu ve söylemlerle sürdürmesi olduğunu söylemek mümkündür.
Öte yandan İhvan, süreç içerisinde Suriye Muhalif ve Devrimci Güçler Ulusal Koalisyonu’na (SMDK) dönüşen çatı siyasal muhalefete de eleştirilerini artırmıştır. Bugün İhvan cemaati, SMDK içinde sadece Faruk Tayfur ve Ahmed Seyyid Yusuf tarafından temsil edilmektedir. Cenevre’de süren Anayasa Komitesi’nde ise SMDK üzerinden temsiliyeti vardır. Gelinen aşamada devrimin uzamasıyla birlikte İhvan Cemaati’nin de silahlı olmayan pek çok yapı gibi ağırlıklı olarak insani yardım faaliyetleri üzerinden Suriye ile bağlantı kurduğu söylenebilir. Bununla birlikte yıllardır sürgünde yaşayan cemaat üyeleri bazı araştırma merkezleri ve dernekler üzerinden de faaliyet gösteriyor. Bu da aslında uzak kalınan sahayı anlamlandırma çabası olarak öne çıkıyor.
Hiç şüphesiz 70’li yıllar boyunca İhvan üzerinden ifade bulan Suriye’deki azınlık Nusayri-Alevi rejime karşı Sünni çoğunluğun öfkesi katlanarak sürmüştür ancak kendisini ifade edecek başka kanallar da bulmuştur. Bunun yanında Arap Baharı’nın diğer birçok ülkesinde olduğu gibi gerek radikal İslamcı oluşumlar gerekse İslamcı olmamalarına rağmen Esed rejimine karşı İslamcı gruplarla iş birliği yapan seküler gruplar Suriye’de de İhvan’ı geride bırakmışa benziyor. Hiç şüphesiz ideolojik bir hareket olarak İhvan-ı Müslimin hareketinin Suriye’de nasıl bir seyir izleyeceğini görmek için Esed rejiminin yıkılması ya da en azından çok sesliliği kabul ederek muhalefetin politik alanda önünü açması gerekmektedir. Rejimin doğasına baktığımızda ikinci seçeneğin imkansızlığını görebiliriz. Bununla birlikte mevcut aşamada Suriye’de ideolojik hareketlerin barışçıl bir rol oynamasının önünde başka engeller de vardır. Zira Suriye’de hala silah ve şiddet egemen konumdadır. Şiddetin sona ermesi ve politikanın önünün açılması için ancak rejimin yıkılmasıyla mümkün olabilecek silah egemenliğinin sona ermesi gerekmektedir.
İhvan hareketi ise burada da bahsettiğimiz gibi sahanın geçirdiği dönüşümlere ayak uyduramamış ve adeta hala Hama öncesindeki Suriye’de kalmıştır. Ancak yalnızca Suriye’de değil Orta Doğu’nun tamamında Arap Baharı öncesi oluşan ancak Arap Baharı ile gün yüzüne çıkma şansı bulan bir toplumsal ve siyasi dönüşüm olduğu açıktır. İhvan hareketinin sadece Suriye’de değil örgütlendiği neredeyse bütün ülkelerde bu toplumsal ve siyasi dönüşümü doğru bir şekilde okuduğuna dair ise ciddi şüpheler bulunmaktadır. Dolayısıyla İhvan hareketinin Suriye’deki geleceğinin ne olacağına dair bir tahminde bulunmanın güç olduğunu söyleyebiliriz.
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